Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Wednesday, Sept. 19 MLB

A big day in baseball today with 17 games on the schedule.  With yesterday's rainouts there are a pair of doubleheaders with the Yankees hosting the Blue Jays and the Nationals hosting the Dodgers. Here is a look at some of today's games.

JAYS AT YANKEES 
Andy Pettitte makes his return from the disabled list and goes up against Henderson Alvarez.  Game 2 has the Yanks going with Phil Hughes against a struggling Ricky Romero.

BREWERS AT PIRATES
The two teams continue to battle for a wild card spot.  The Brewers send the hot Marco Estrada against the Pirates, Kyle McPherson.  Estrada is 5-1 in his last 6 starts, giving up just 9 ER's in his last 34 2/3IP

OAKLAND AT DETROIT
Tigers ace Justin Verlander takes his 14 wins up against Oakland's Brett Anderson. Anderson was roughed up in his last start against the Angels.  He's given up 7 ER in 32 2/3IP.

BRAVES AT MARLINS
Will the Braves Kris Medlen ever lose.  Atlanta has won 20 straight with Medlen pitching.  He duels with Josh Johnson who has given up just 2 ER in 13 2/3IP against the Braves this year.  Miami is 1-1 in the two games.

RANGERS AT ANGELS
The Rangers send Derek Holland to the mound against former Ranger, CJ Wilson, The Rangers have lost both meetings this season with Holland against the Angels.  Holland has been tagged for 12 ER in 13 1/3IP.

ROCKIES AT SAN FRAN
Colorado goes up against Matt Cain.  The Giants have won 6 of 7 with Cain on the mound and 4 straight with Cain versus the Rockies.




Tuesday, September 18, 2012

NFL WEEK 2 WRAP UP

As I pointed out after Week 1, if you like to wager on games, don't worry about the spread.  The favorite will win and cover the spread or the underdog will win the game outright.

Here are week 2 results.  Note all results are based on the opening posted Las Vegas line.

FAVORITES WHO COVERED
PACKERS, TEXANS, BILLS, STEELERS, CHARGERS, 49ERS, FALCONS

UNDERDOGS WHO COVERED THE SPREAD
TAMPA, DOLPHINS, RAVENS, PANTHERS, CARDINALS, COLTS, SEAHAWKS, 

THE BENGALS VS BROWNS GAME WAS A "PUSH".  CINCINNATI WAS FAVORED BY 7 POINTS AND WON THE GAME BY 7 POINTS.

OF THE 16 GAMES PLAYED, ONLY TWO FAVORITES WON THE GAME BUT DID NOT COVER THE SPREAD.

OF THE 16 GAMES PLAYED, 8 GAMES WENT UNDER THE POSTED TOTAL AND 8 GAMES WENT OVER THE POSTED TOTAL.


AFTER TWO WEEKS HERE ARE THE OVERALL NUMBERS

17 GAMES HAVE GONE OVER THE POSTED TOTAL
15 GAMES HAVE GONE UNDER THE POSTED TOTAL

16 TIMES THE FAVORITE HAS COVERED THE SPREAD
15 TIMES THE UNDERDOG HAS COVERED THE SPREAD
1 GAME PUSHED THE TOTAL

ONLY 5 OUT OF 31 TIMES HAS THE FAVORITE WON THE GAME AND NOT COVERED THE SPREAD.

Tuesday, Sept 18 games

Tuesday MLB

RAIN OUT GAMES......
DODGERS AT NATS, JAYS AT YANKS, PHILS AT METS

BREWERS AT PIRATES
Yovani Gallardo has been on fire since the trade of Zack Greinke going 7-0 with an ERA of 2.98 in his last 9 starts.  He squares off against AJ Burnett who is winless in his last 5 starts.

A'S AT TIGERS
Great pitching match up with AJ Griffin going up against Max Scherzer.  Scherzer is as hot as anyone with a 10-1 record in his last 14 starts with an ERA just over 2 1/2.  Griffin has been a road warrior surrendering just 4ER in 31 1/3 IP.

REDS AT CUBS
Reds pitcher, Homer Bailey loves pitching in September and the Cubs.  Bailey is 10-3 lifetime in September/October.  The Reds are 7-2 lifetime against the Cubs when Bailey starts.

RANGERS AT ANGELS
Ryan Dempster is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a 1.91 ERA while Jeff Weaver despite a 2-1 record against Texas carries a 5.94 ERA against the Rangers.

Friday, September 14, 2012

FRIDAY, SEPT. 14, BASEBALL PREVIEW

TIGERS AT INDIANS
Not a good spot for the Tribe to have to face Justin Verlander.  Tigers needing a win and the Tribe counter with Corey Kluber (1-7) who has only held the opposition to less than 3 runs in 2 of his 8 starts.

RED SOX AT JAYS
Matsuzaka surprisingly got pounded his last time out vs the Jays.  Boston had been 12-1 when he starts vs Toronto prior to that start.  The Red Sox are coming off an emotional series against the Yanks and I just don't see them giving much of an effort against the lowly Jays.

REDS AT MARLINS
Cincinnati goes with the hot Bronson Arroyo (12-7).  The Reds have won his last 6 starts and 5 of 6 on the road.

NATS AT BRAVES
Atlanta is 19-1 when Medlen starts.  He goes against Ross Detwiler.  The Nats are 3-1 this year with Detwiler vs the Braves.  The lone loss coming with Medlen on the bump.

MARINERS AT RANGERS
It is Iwakuma vs Darvish tonight.  Darvish has lost his last two to the Mariners giving up 11ER in 10 1/3IP

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

WEDNESDAY, SEPT 13 MLB

ALL TIMES PACIFIC

1PM 
MARLINS AT PHILS
A good pitching match up with Josh Johnson going up against Cliff Lee.  Johnson is 1-0 in his last 3 starts giving up just 3 ER in his last 15 IP.  Lee is just as sizzling for the Phils who still feel they have a shot at the Wild Card.  Lee is 2-0 in his last 5 starts with an ERA of just over 2.

3PM
CARDS AT PADRES
The Cards got some bad news when they found out Lance Berkman was done for the year with a bum knee.    Today the Cards send out 14 game winner, Kyle Lohse against the Padres, Clayton Richard. Lohse has been tough of late, surrendering more than 2 ER once in his last 7 starts

5PM
BRAVES AT BREWERS
Atlanta will try and avoid a sweep today as they send Paul Maholm against Brewers ace, Yovani Gallardo.  The Brewers have won 8 straight with Gallardo on the mound while Maholm teams have lost 6 straight to the Brew Crew.  This season, the Brewers have knocked Maholm around for 10ER in 8IP

5PM
TIGERS AT CHISOX
Max Scherzer goes for win #16 as he faces Francisco Liriano.  Liriano has struggled at home as a member of the White Sox with an ERA of 6.52 at home.  The Chisox have lost his last 3 starts overall.

630 PM
DODGERS AT ZONA
The Diamondbacks are 4-1 with Trevor Cahill starting against LA.  The Dodgers counter with Aaron Harang who has been roughed up for 15ER in 14IP vs the Snakes.

Monday, September 10, 2012

WEEK 1 WRAP UP

For those of you who like to put a few dollars down on a game (legally, of course) one thing you should know is that "spreads" don't matter.  They are just there to mess with your mind.  What do I mean?  Let's use the Bears/Colts game as an example. The Bears were favored by 9 points.  You say to yourself, man, I like the Bears but 9 points is too much.  Wrong!!!  The Bears pounded the Colts, 41-21 and more than covered the 9 points. 
Of the 14 games played in week 1, only 3 favorites who won the game did not cover.  The other 11 games, the favorite won and covered or the underdog won the game outright. 
Favorites who won but did not cover:
Eagles 17 Browns 16 (Eagles were a 9 point favorite)
Lions 27 Rams 23 ( Lions were a 9 point favorite)
Vikings 26 Jags 23 (Vikings were a 4 1/2 point favorite)

Other week 1 betting notes
9 games went over the posted total
7 games went under the posted total

9 favorites covered the spread
7 underdogs covered the spread

9 home teams won games
7 road teams won games

Home underdogs were 2-2 against the spread

MONDAY, SEPT 10 MLB PREVIEW

MARLINS AT PHILLIES
Both teams continue to play out the string.  Wade LeBlanc has pitched well since moving into the starting rotation going 1-2 with a 3.51 ERA.  He will be matched up against Kyle Kendrick who is 4-1 in his last 5 starts with a 1.53 ERA. The Phils are 9-4 lifetime with Kendrick against the Marlins and 2-0 this year

TIGERS AT CHISOX
The battle for top spot in the central continues.  The Tigers are coming off a sweep at the hands of the Angels but they may have just what the doctor ordered in starter Rick Porcello.  The Tigers are 3-0 with Porcello this year vs the White Sox and he is given up just 3ER in 23IP

GIANTS AT ROCKIES
Giants starter, Ryan Vogelsong has been getting hit hard of late (24 ER in his last 21 1/3 IP).  The Rockies could be just what he needs to get back on track as the Giants are 6-0 vs Colorado when Vogelsong starts.

A'S AT ANGELS
The Angels are on a tear and tonight they face Oakland's, Jarrod Parker who they have already beaten three times this season.

CARDINALS AT PADRES
The Cards send Jaime Garcia to the mound against a pesky Padre team and Eric Stults.  Garcia has not pitched well on the road of late giving up 10 ER in his last 11 1/3IP

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Sunday NFL wrap

For those of you who like to put a few dollars down on a game (legally, of course) one thing you should know is that "spreads" don't matter.  They are just there to mess with your mind.  What do I mean?  Let's use the Bears/Colts game as an example. The Bears were favored by 9 points.  You say to yourself, man, I like the Bears but 9 points is too much.  Wrong!!!  The Bears pounded the Colts, 41-21 and more than covered the 9 points.
Of the 14 games played in week 1, only 3 favorites who won the game did not cover.  The other 11 games, the favorite won and covered or the underdog won the game outright.
Favorites who won but did not cover:
Eagles 17 Browns 16 (Eagles were a 9 point favorite)
Lions 27 Rams 23 ( Lions were a 9 point favorite)
Vikings 26 Jags 23 (Vikings were a 4 1/2 point favorite)

Other week 1 betting notes
8 games went over the posted total
6 games went under the posted total

8 favorites covered the spread
6 underdogs covered the spread

8 home teams won games
6 road teams won games

Home underdogs were 2-2 against the spread


Sunday MLB

Braves at Mets
The Braves offense exploded yesterday for an 11 spot after having back to back 1-0 victories.  Today they send the struggling Tommy Hanson up against the Mets.  Hanson has given up 9 ER in his last 14 1/3 and 10ER in his last two starts vs the Mets

Astros at Reds
Johnny Cueto goes for win #18 today against the Astros.  Cueto, one of the leading NL Cy Young candidates is 11-1 in day games with a 1.87 ERA.

Yanks at Orioles
The Yanks will look to even the series with the Orioles and send Freddy Garcia to the bump.  They will be in tough against the Orioles Zach Britton.

Royals at Chisox
The Royals Jeremy Guthrie is 4-0 with a 2.04 ERA in his last 6 starts and KC has won all of those games

A's at Mariners
Oakland will be in tough today against Seattle starter Jason Vargas.  Vargas is 2-0 in 4 starts against the Athletics this year with an ERA of 1.98

Dodgers at SF
The Giants have won 6 straight with Barry Zito starting.  They will be in tough today against Dodger ace, Clayton Kershaw.  Kershaw has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 8 starts and 14 of his 15 career starts vs the Giants.

Thursday, September 6, 2012

FRIDAY BASEBALL PREVIEW

Marlins at Nationals
Strasburg makes his second to last start and he will definitely look to rebound from the pounding the Marlins gave him in Miami back on August 28 when they tagged him for 5ER in 5IP.

Yankees at Orioles
The Bronx Bombers will try and even the series up after surrendering double digit runs to the Orioles last night.  They send Phil Hughes to the bump who has already been on the losing end twice to the Orioles this season.

Braves at Mets
The Braves are coming off a pair of 1-0 shutouts against the Rockies at home with each of the two runs being of the unearned variety.  It won't get easier against the Mets who send Jonathan Niese up against Paul Maholm.  The Mets have won both contests this year with Niese pitching and 4 straight.

Rangers at Rays
Derek Holland is on a roll for Texas going 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA in his past 3 games.  He is 1-1 vs the Rays this year with an ERA just over 5 1/2/ . The Rays counter with Jeremy Hellickson who has looked good the past few months.  He has only surrendered more than 3 earned runs twice in his last 12 outings.

Brewers at Cards
Yovanni Gallardo has been on a roll since the trade of Zack Greinke.  The Brewers have won 7 straight starts with Gallardo on the mound but tonight he may have run into "kryptonite" as he faces the Cards.  The Brewers are 2-12 lifetime against the Cards with Gallardo and this season he has been roughed up for 14ER in 5 2/3 IP (ouch babe!)

A's at Mariners
Runs should be at a premium tonight as King Felix goes up against the Athletics, A.J. Griffin.  Griffin sports an ERA under 2 in three road starts this year while King Felix has a 1.62 ERA in his last 15 starts.  Lifetime he is 13-5 against the A's with an ERA of 2.63

Dodgers at SF
Where is the Dodger offense? Ramirez, Kemp, Ethier, Gonzalez should be enough to drive pitchers crazy.  Instead the Dodgers are driving their fans crazy struggling to score runs.  Josh Beckett has pitched well as a Dodger and Tim Lincecum is 2-1 against the "Blue Crew" this season with an ERA of 2.55.  LA needs to sweep the Giants if they want to be relevant for a playoff push.

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Wednesday Baseball Preview

Phillies at Reds
The Phils have won 5 straight with Halladay vs Cincy while the Reds are 0-4 when Leake pitches against the Phils. In addition, Leake has been touched up for 22 ER in 23 IP vs Philly

Indians at Tigers
Ubaldo Jimenez has been a wake up call for the oppositions offense.  He has a 7.79 ERA in his last 10 starts. One of those losses was a 6-1 pounding by the Tigers on August 4

Orioles at Blue Jays
The Orioles are red hot and breathing down the Yankees neck.  Despite all that they are an underdog according to Las Vegas to the struggling Blue Jays. Toronto sends out Brendan Morrow who has been on a roll since his return from the DL. This could be a classic look ahead game for Baltimore who starts a series tomorrow night against the Yankees .  Beware, Orioles fans.

Texas at Kansas City
Rangers starter, Ryan Dempster,  has been virtually untouchable of late, winning 3 in a row with a 1.35 ERA

Arizona at San Fran
The Giants almost pulled out another one last night.  Down 6-2 they rallied to tie the game at 6 and force extra innings before losing in 11.  Tonight, Trevor Cahill squares off against the Giants, Madison Bumgarner. Both pitchers have struggled against the opposition this season.  Cahill is 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA (8 ER, 112/3IP) while Bumgarner is no better (0-2, 8ER 10IP).

Monday, September 3, 2012

Monday MLB Preview

Indians at Tigers The Tigers will look to even up the series with the Indians who took game 1. Detroit sends Rick Porcello to the mound and Detroit is an impressive 9-4 when he starts vs Cleveland. The Indians counter with Justin Masterson who has an ERA well over 7 in his last 7 starts. The Indians are just 3-6 when he starts vs Detroit. Rockies at Braves The Braves are coming off a dominant 6-1 win over Colorado in the series opener and will look to continue its winning ways. They are hoping that 12 game winner Tommy Hanson can regain the form that has made him a 12 game winner. Since Hanson has come off the DL, his last 3 starts he has been tagged for 12 runs in 15 2/3 IP. Phillies at Padres Klyle Kendrick has won a career best 4 consecutive starts. He hopes to continue his hot streak against a Reds team where the Phillies are 4-1 when he takes the mound. His chances look pretty good to continue his winning ways as his opponent, Mat Latos, has lost all four (4) of his starts to the Phils. Twins at Chisox The Twins will look to even the series when the send, Canadian, Scott Diamond to the hill. One problem, Diamond is 0-2 vs the Chisox this year. Rangers at KC Matt Harrison is 3-1 lifetime vs the Royals while the Royals have won 5 straight with starter Jeremy Guthrie on the bump. Mets at Cards The Mets Matt Harvey is on a roll going 2-0 in his last two starts with an ERA under 2. The Cards Jaime Garcia has struggled since coming off the DL. He has been touched for 10 runs in his last 11 1/3 IP. Padres at Dodgers The Dodgers have had some magic of late. On Sunday it was a two-run double by Adrian Gonzalez to give LA a 4-3 victory over Arizona. Monday night, Andre Ethier tied it up in the 9th with a solo shot and Mark Ellis won it extras to knock off the Padres, 4-3. Monday night the Pads will look to even the series when they send former Dodger, Eric Stults against Clayton Kershaw. Stults is coming off a fantastic August where he went 4-0. They will need Stults to be at his best against Kershaw who has given up just 9ER in 39IP to the Pads. The Dodgers are 12-4 when Kershaw starts vs the Padres. Zona at SF Ian Kennedy is 2-0 with a 2.51 ERA vs SF this year. Arizona has won 6 straight when Kennedy starts vs SF. The Giants are 17-8 when Vogelsong starts. He is seeking his 13th win, which would match a career high.

Sunday, September 2, 2012

Sunday baseball

Texas at Cleveland
The Rangers are 4-0 with Holland pitching vs Clev

Tampa at Toronto
The Rays are an impressive 12-2 whenPrice starts vs Jays

Pirates at Brewers
The Pirates have only one win in 12 tries vs the Brewers when Gallardo pitches